# Forward Projections: Demographic Pressure on Asset Classes

Demographic component (Z₁β₁ + Z₂β₂ + Z₃β₃) using latest demographics.

*Housing excluded — result is spurious (see Phase 8 Part A).*

| Country | Carry vs USA | Portfolio equity/GDP | REER (log) | REER (Δ%) | Safe rate (10y) | Safe rate (3m) | Stock mkt cap/GDP | Term spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPN | -4.084 | -46.889 | -0.049 | -1.510 | -4.248 | -4.377 | -10.576 | 0.171 |
| DEU | -2.248 | -9.623 | -0.017 | -0.343 | -2.757 | -3.397 | 0.448 | 0.417 |
| USA | -0.228 | -4.456 | -0.002 | -0.139 | -0.525 | -0.520 | -2.537 | 0.014 |
| KOR | -1.879 | 25.271 | -0.017 | 0.711 | 1.009 | -0.042 | 28.667 | 0.496 |
| CHN | 0.015 | 28.022 | 0.005 | 0.842 | 1.451 | 0.810 | 18.769 | 0.288 |
| IND | 3.212 | -8.645 | 0.022 | -0.182 | 2.676 | 4.090 | -16.103 | -0.815 |
| GBR | -0.813 | -12.788 | -0.008 | -0.404 | -1.389 | -1.393 | -5.773 | 0.044 |
| FRA | -1.363 | -20.437 | -0.012 | -0.646 | -2.575 | -2.651 | -10.102 | 0.120 |
| BRA | 1.515 | 9.715 | 0.011 | 0.328 | 2.217 | 2.604 | 2.580 | -0.271 |
| AUS | -0.220 | -8.624 | -0.004 | -0.264 | -0.505 | -0.365 | -4.533 | -0.059 |
| ITA | -2.905 | -10.463 | -0.027 | -0.386 | -2.601 | -3.339 | 5.075 | 0.453 |
| ESP | -2.013 | 4.181 | -0.017 | 0.076 | -1.161 | -1.927 | 11.396 | 0.426 |
| TUR | 1.906 | 5.093 | 0.015 | 0.199 | 2.004 | 2.590 | -3.083 | -0.364 |
| MEX | 2.890 | -7.765 | 0.023 | -0.162 | 1.833 | 3.014 | -16.600 | -0.662 |
| ZAF | 3.514 | -7.517 | 0.028 | -0.139 | 2.281 | 3.665 | -19.062 | -0.779 |

*These are mechanical partial-equilibrium projections. Positive = demographic pressure pushing asset value up; negative = downward pressure.*